A recent study by the Pew Research Center reports the results of a survey conducted in December which found that young adults have been among the hardest hit by the recession. This finding is not all that surprising given the natural corporate tendency to stop hiring and hold onto the most productive workers (typically those with some experience) when times get tough. In addition, a weak economy curtails the part-time jobs many students tend to hold, bumping up unemployment in younger age groups.
Another flurry of headlines and reports caught my eye over the past few days, as they placed Texans among the worst off.
Shale formations are a crucial component of the nation’s oil and natural gas supplies.
You know, growing up I didn’t have any really good talents, not that I have any now either. I wasn’t really athletic, I couldn’t sing, play an instrument, or junk like that.
The other day I asked a kid how school was goin’. He said that it was goin’ OK. I then asked if he had found a new girlfriend. He looked at me as if I’d lost my mind.
In spite of some relief over the winter in the form of much-needed rainfall, Texas remains in the midst of the worst drought on record. Agricultural losses for 2011 were in the billions (we topped $5 billion in August), wildfire losses hit $100 million, and cities and water supply systems across the state enacted conservation measures. There are, of course, multiplier effects on top of that.
I have been noticin' here lately that young parents are havin' a little more difficulty makin' their kids mind.
“Income inequality” has become a flashpoint, with protestors occupying various locales, campaigners jumping on the bandwagon, and pundits spouting statistics. It’s an emotionally charged issue, with the recession and sluggish recovery causing many families intense financial pain.
Shortly before Christmas, you may have seen a depressing headline indicating almost half of all Americans are living in poverty or close to it. The Associated Press article appeared in hundreds of online and print outlets as well as being covered in television and radio news reports. While the past few years have seen a flurry of articles related to the shrinking middle class, the thought that half of all families are poor took things to a new low.
Tensions are once again rising in the Middle East, with the latest salvo centered on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts to stop Iranian nuclear weapons development have led to a variety of sanctions by the United Nations as well as the United States and other countries.
The year 2011 has faded into history.
As I’ve mentioned in recent columns, The Perryman Group’s latest forecast calls for Texas to continue to outperform the nation in the coming years. Unemployment and relatively weak housing markets remain an issue in some areas, but most regions have shown clear signs of improvement. The focus of today’s inquiry is the outlook for the major industry groups within the state. Fortunately, Texas enjoys a highly diverse economy with a significant presence across multiple sectors. This characteristic is one of the keys to being able to absorb national and global disruptions in a relatively effective manner.
We have recently completed our annual short-term outlook for the United States, Texas, and the state’s metropolitan areas. While I don’t expect things to smooth out entirely quite yet, on balance, I think our big cities will see notable growth over the next five years. Here is a look at The Perryman Group’s latest short-term (2011-2016) forecast for Texas’ largest cities.
‘Black Friday’ helps brighten season
Unfortunately, you’re probably not overly surprised by the failure of the congressional “super committee” charged with working out a deficit (and therefore ultimately debt) reduction plan. Formed in the wake of debt ceiling brinksmanship earlier this year, the 12-member group (six Democrats and six Republicans) faced a tall order. Even so, it is disheartening that even this smaller subset of lawmakers was unable to make much progress.
To the Editor:
Last week, the US Department of State and President Obama put off a final decision on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline connecting oil supply regions in Canada with U.S. refineries and distribution networks. The project was announced in July 2008 and was scheduled for approval a year ago, but the latest announcement pushes out the date until at least early 2013.
The pace of recovery of the U.S. economy continues to falter. Lackluster job growth and uncertainty over fiscal policy, health care costs, and the debt ceiling have taken a toll, as have financial disruptions in Europe and Japan and the political unrest in the Middle East. While the U.S. is likely to avoid a “double-dip” recession, some reduction in uncertainty is needed to coax large volumes of investment funds off the sideline and back into the economy.
Global population just topped seven billion last week (or is about to do so, depending on which estimate you believe).
As I mentioned last week, I recently spoke at an event celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Texas Economic Development Council, a non-profit association that works to increase opportunities for all Texans by supporting economic development. In last week’s column, I described some of the key changes in the population of Texas: more people, more diversity, more education, and more women in the workforce. This week’s column focuses on shifts in the composition of Texas jobs over the past 50 years, including some key statistics.
It was recently my honor and privilege to give a speech at an event celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Texas Economic Development Council.
Dear Editor:
In 1968, the central bank of Sweden instituted the Nobel Prize in Economics. Formally “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel,” the prize has been awarded every year since that time by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The $1.5 million prizes have been given for work in economics areas ranging from general equilibrium theory (how everything hangs together) to traditional micro and macroeconomics to bargaining theory to economic history. Economists who have expanded the field of economics into other arenas such as political science, sociology, and law have also been recognized.
Dear Editor,
In July 2008, TransCanada Keystone Pipeline LP Ltd., announced Keystone XL, an approximately $7 billion pipeline project which would almost double the size and capacity of the company’s pipeline system connecting oil supply regions in Canada with US refineries and distribution networks.
Small businesses have long been an important source of economic activity and employment, particularly in certain industries such as real estate and construction. Of total 2008 employment in Texas of 9.2 million, almost 1.5 million jobs were within firms with less than 20 employees (according to data compiled by the US Small Business Administration--SBA). Another 2.8 million fell in companies with between 20 and 499 workers. The small (less than 500 employee) companies accounted for almost 46% of private-sector jobs in Texas.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its global economic outlook. The chosen title reflects that organization’s read on current conditions: “Slowing Growth, Rising Risks.” Without a doubt, there is some validity to this view. The IMF’s outlook notes that activity has weakened, with US private-sector demand slow to increase and euro area problems with sovereign debt and banking persisting. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) also recently released its interim assessment of global economic conditions with the headline proclaiming “Economic growth perspectives weakening as recovery slows.”
Dear Editor:
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its 2010 report on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance coverage. For the United States, 2010 real (inflation-adjusted) median income per household was $49,445, some 2.3 percent below the 2009 median. This was the third year in a row the median household income level decreased and the first time since 1996 that the figure was below $50,000. (The median is the level at which half of households have incomes higher and half lower.) Recent peaks in real median household income occurred in 1999 and 2000, topping $53,000 both years.
The Texas Film Commission (housed within the Governor’s Office) indicates that film, television, commercial, video game, animation, and televised sports industries accounted for more than half a billion dollars in spending in Texas in 2009. If you had to guess which type topped the list, would you say video gaming? Would you guess that it’s now nearly half of the total?
The pace of job creation continues to be unimpressive. In August, the private sector added 91,000 jobs (according to payroll processor ADP’s statistics), which is down from the gains earlier in the summer. While it is far better than in the not-so-distant past, such a pace will do little to alleviate the unemployment problem.
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