ELECTION '08
Democrats have uphill climb to take back Texas House
Straight-ticket voting and redistricting are tall obstacles, despite changing demographics
By Laylan Copelin
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Sunday, September 07, 2008
ROUND ROCK — Donna Brown and Sylvia Mayer moved here for the way of life.
Brown, who grew up in East Austin before moving to Round Rock two years ago, enjoys a bigger house on a larger lot than she could afford in Austin. Mayer, who first came to Williamson County for college, returned three years ago to buy her first house.
 Larry Kolvoord/AMERICAN-STATESMAN Sylvia Mayer, left, and Donna Brown are Williamson County residents who differ on candidates in the District 52 House race. |
They live in adjoining neighborhoods but don't know one another. Brown, a Democrat, and Mayer, president of the Williamson County Young Republicans, packed their political allegiances with them when they moved.
Now they are on the front lines in one of the 10 or so battleground districts where the progress of the Texas Democratic Party's comeback will be tested.
No one is suggesting Texas will turn from red to blue at the top of the ticket. Sen. John McCain is expected to best Sen. Barack Obama in Texas, and Republicans are expected to maintain a majority in the Texas Senate.
It is the Texas House of Representatives where Democrats, who hold no statewide offices, hope to regain a majority and defeat Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland, as the next step in their comeback.
The Democrats need a net gain of five seats to win the slimmest of majorities in the Texas House. They expect to build on their gains from 2006 when they picked up six seats. They also point to the unprecedented turnout of Democratic voters — twice that of Republicans — in their spring primary as evidence of a political shift among voters.
Their momentum, however, must run uphill Nov. 4 against strongholds of straight-ticket voting and legislative districts created to favor Republicans.
House District 52, which includes Round Rock and the portion of Austin that has spilled over into Williamson County, once fit the profile of a GOP district. But the near-defeat of GOP Rep. Mike Krusee by an unknown in 2006 gave Democrats hope that the political math is changing as new residents like Brown move in.
John Gordon, a former Williamson County GOP chairman who consulted on the drawing of the District 52 lines seven years ago, sees change coming but said he thinks Democrats will fall short in making inroads in the reliably conservative county.
"The percentage coming from Austin may still think 'Austin' for a while," Gordon said. "It's our job to remind them why they left Austin."
Ed Martin, a redistricting expert for Democrats, said he thinks people like Brown will make a difference.
"You're seeing a shift in attitude and population," Martin said. "We saw it happen in Travis County suburban districts. Now we're seeing it happen in Williamson County."
How many are coming?
People moving to Williamson County is nothing new.
Annual population growth averaged about 17,000, a rate just under 6 percent, from 2001 through 2007, according to a study by the Capital Area Council of Governments.
Migration accounts for about 60 percent of the county's long-term growth. From 2001 to 2007, one-third of those came from out of state, with Los Angeles the top county of origin. Two-thirds came from elsewhere in Texas, and Travis topped those counties of origin. In net migration terms, Travis accounted for about three in 10 of all new residents, the study concluded.
Why they come
Mayer, 29, first came to Williamson County from Houston in 1997 to attend Southwestern University, then commuted to a job at Dell Inc. from her parents' home in New Braunfels after graduation.
Three years ago, after looking over the Central Texas real estate market, Mayer bought her first house in Round Rock, not far from the Dell Diamond ballpark.
"I love living in a community where people know who you are," said Mayer, who's changed jobs and now commutes to North Austin where she's a technical trainer.
Mayer, who's single, said she likes the low crime rate, the good schools (for when she starts a family) and the values.
"I still think it's strongly conservative," she said.
Brown, 37, and her husband had been living in her 900-square-foot childhood home that they had remodeled in East Austin. Her mother lived nearby in an apartment. When escalating rents forced Brown's mother to move in, Brown went looking for a larger home.
Two years ago, she found a Round Rock house that is three times larger on a half-acre lot for the same price as her East Austin place.
She also discovered some cultural differences. She said members of her homeowner's association had a "visceral" response to her suggestion they start a recycling program. When her mother couldn't find a copy of The New York Times, a store clerk explained, "We don't sell that rag up here," Brown said.
"I think I will always feels more connected to my hometown (Austin)," Brown said, "but I like where I live."
Brown, a software designer who commutes to work in North Austin, said the lines between Travis and Williamson counties are blurring because of the area's new toll roads.
"Ten years ago, the thought of going to Round Rock, was, 'Oh my God! Pack a lunch,' " she joked. "It doesn't seem so far today."
Redistricting a hurdle
As Democrats pin their hopes on changing demographics, Republicans are betting that the Democrats will trip over the same hurdle that the GOP did in the 1990s: redistricting.
During the 1990s, the Republicans became the state's dominant party, winning statewide elections and a Senate majority, but they struggled to crack the Texas House.
Over that decade the GOP slowly increased its share of House seats from 57 to 72 by four or five seats each election cycle. In 1998, it stalled at 72 seats — four short of a majority — for four years because the Democrats had drawn the districts to favor their party.
The closer the GOP got to a majority, the harder it was to find the marginal Democratic districts they could win.
Only in 2002, after Republicans created legislative districts that favored them, did the GOP win control of the House with a net gain of 16 seats. That dramatic increase was rooted in a gamble: A lot of those districts were drawn with thin GOP margins susceptible to changes in population or voters' moods.
"The goal was to maximize the number of seats for Republicans, not to make them safe for Republicans," said Royal Masset, the state GOP political director during the late 1990s.
That, as much as anything, helps explain the fading GOP majority in the House even as Republicans continue to win statewide elections.
"I get the impression that the low-hanging fruit has been taken," Masset said. "There probably aren't many more winnable seats out there" for Democrats.
Martin said he disagrees, saying the right mix of candidates with the right message can make a difference.
"People who are not Democrats necessarily are willing to give us another look or listen," he said.
Thin GOP margins
Travis County is almost as blue as Williamson County is red. And, as Martin noted, Austin and its suburbs have been getting bluer.
In the 2001 redistricting plan, the Republican leadership gave the GOP three of the six House districts in Travis County. They drew their margins so thin that they couldn't weather the winds of change.
By 2006, the GOP had lost them all as Democrats Mark Strama, Donna Howard and Valinda Bolton won back those districts. Strama upset a one-term Republican; Howard and Bolton won open contests when the GOP incumbents moved on.
Democrats are hoping Travis County's blue blot spreads across the county line as people like Brown move into House District 52.
The biggest hurdle Democrats face may be straight-ticket voters — those who cast ballots for one party's slate as opposed to choosing between individual candidates. A candidate with the larger straight-ticket cushion needs to win fewer swing voters.
Williamson County Republicans have enjoyed a straight-ticket advantage for years, but they have seen that advantage decline from 3-to-1 in 2002 to 2-to-1 by 2006.
An internal GOP document showed a 10 percent decline in straight-ticket Republicans in House District 52 from 2004 to 2006. That decline cost each GOP candidate 4.5 percentage points, according to the document.
Both sides are urgently targeting straight-ticket voters.
Last month, Travis County Democratic volunteers trained their Williamson County counterparts in identifying and turning out straight-ticket voters.
Gordon concedes that Democrats will increase their straight-ticket voting, but he said he predicts that they won't close the gap.
"Democrats have brought back more of their core with a lot of heart," he said. "I think that will motivate more Republicans."
Races to watch
Five Democratic seats targeted by Republicans
(Incumbents in boldface)
District 17 (no incumbent)
Donnie Dippel (D) LaGrange
Tim Kleinschmidt (R) Lexington
Kleinschmidt almost defeated longtime Democratic incumbent Robby Cook two years ago.
District 32
Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi
Todd Hunter R-Corpus Christi
GOP recruited former Democratic lawmaker to test Garcia's 2006 upset of a scandal-plagued incumbent.
District 97
Dan Barrett (D) Fort Worth
Mark Shelton (R) Fort Worth
Barrett must prove last year's special-election victory was no fluke in a GOP district.
District 107
Bill Keffer (R) Dallas
Allen Vaught (D) Dallas
This is a rematch of 2006 when Vaught ousted Keffer.
District 149
Greg Myers (R) Houston
Hubert Vo (D) Houston
The first Vietnamese American in the Texas House is being painted as a slum lord.
Bubble race: District 47
Valinda Bolton (D) Austin
Donna Keel (R) Austin
Watch whether the GOP puts lots of money in this race despite Travis County's blue streak.
Five Republican seats targeted by Democrats
District 52(no incumbent)
Bryan Daniel (R) Georgetown
Diana Maldonado (D) Round Rock
A 2006 near-win by an unknown Democrat encouraged GOP Rep. Mike Krusee to retire.
District 78 (no incumbent)
Dee Margo (R) El Paso
Joe Moody (D) El Paso
Margo defeated the GOP incumbent, but Democrats say they think demographics favor them.
District 96
Chris Turner (D) Burleson
Bill Zedler (R) Arlington
Turner's ties to U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards ensure plenty of party support and money.
District 101 (no incumbent)
Mike Anderson (R) Mesquite
Robert Miklos (D) Dallas
Democrats are betting on changing demographics.
District 144(no incumbent)
Ken Legler (R) Pasadena
Joel Redmond (D) Pasadena
Democrats hope Redmond's ties to large Baptist church might help in conservative district.
Bubble race: District 102
Tony Goolsby (R) Dallas
Carol Kent (D) Dallas
Goolsby is running with the memory of a tough race two years ago.
lcopelin@statesman.com;445-3617
