GOVERNOR'S RACE
Hutchison, Perry about even, poll shows
Senator recovering from summer dip, according to Rasmussen Reports.
By Jason Embry
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Friday, September 18, 2009
The Republican race for governor tightened in the past two months, leaving U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry in a dead heat with plenty of voters yet to make up their minds, according to a poll released Thursday.
Hutchison has the support of 40 percent of likely Republican voters, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports, while 38 percent of them back Perry. Nineteen percent of respondents are not sure whom they support, and 3 percent favor Debra Medina, a business owner and rancher.
The poll indicates that Hutchison has managed to interrupt months' worth of momentum for the Perry campaign. Just two months ago, Rasmussen found a 10-point lead for Perry.
Hutchison began the year with a healthy lead, until a May Rasmussen poll showed a tight race, indicating that Perry's blistering spring attacks on the federal government had worked. As Hutchison remained relatively quiet, Perry used the same message to build his lead in the first half of the summer.
With Congress out of session for most of August, Hutchison took a lengthy tour around the state to formally announce her candidacy. Though some of her crowds were modest, she hit all of the state's media markets with a tough critique of Perry's record.
"She was back in the state full time and moving systematically throughout the state and giving voters a reason to think about her again," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. "If the announcement tour gave her an advantage, I would recommend more of it — more active campaigning in the state."
With Congress back in session, Hutchison is again splitting her time between Texas and Washington. She has said she plans to leave the Senate before the end of the year.
Jillson also said the tide of conservative anger that Perry has ridden for much of the year may have receded a bit as the economy has shown signs of recovery.
In a general election, many voters pick a candidate based solely on partisan affiliation. But they can't do that in a primary, so at least in theory, a greater share of the electorate is persuadable. Add in that one in five voters surveyed by Rasmussen is unsure of whom to support and that the candidates have yet to spend millions of dollars in television advertising, and the primary appears to be anybody's ballgame.
"The fluctuation that we're seeing suggests that attitudes have not hardened and people are moving as events are hitting them," said Bruce Buchanan, a government professor at the University of Texas.
Perry's campaign remained confident Thursday because the Rasmussen poll shows he's more popular than Hutchison among conservative voters. But she has a much larger lead among voters who describe themselves as moderates or liberals.
Perry's widest lead in the poll is among voters who are 65 and older, while Hutchison's popularity peaks with voters between 50 and 64.
Among men, Perry leads 41 percent to 38 percent. Among women, Hutchison leads 42 percent to 35 percent.
Rasmussen used automated telephone calls to reach 790 likely Republican primary voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
jembry@statesman.com; 445-3572
