POLITICS
UT poll gives Perry cushion over Hutchison
Experts say it's still anyone's contest.
By Jason Embry
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Despite a storm of controversy surrounding his shake-up of a state forensic panel, Gov. Rick Perry leads U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison among voters who say they plan to vote in the March Republican primary, according to a new poll.
The poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune says 42 percent of voters who plan to take part in the GOP primary support Perry, compared with 30 percent who back Hutchison. Seven percent support Wharton businesswoman Debra Medina, 2 percent support someone else, and 18 percent are undecided.
 Rick Perry |
Perry also enjoyed a 12-point lead in a poll that UT released in July.
But since then, he has faced criticism over his decision to replace four members of the Texas Forensic Science Commission in the days leading up to a critical hearing. Before the shake-up, the commission was set to hear a report questioning the arson investigation that led to the conviction of Cameron Todd Willingham, whom the state executed in 2004 for killing his three children in a house fire.
The fact that Perry has kept a 12-point lead indicates that Hutchison has been unable to take advantage of the Willingham news. But her campaign aides insisted Tuesday that she remains in stronger shape than the new poll indicates.
"As we said when the last poll came out that showed Kay Bailey Hutchison leading, polls go up and they go down, but the only one that matters is on Election Day," Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder said. "Our internals show a completely different race, so we are comfortable with where we are."
A September poll released by Rasmussen Reports showed Hutchison with a slight lead that was inside the margin of error.
Although the March 2 Republican primary is four months away, the campaign has been slow to pick up steam. Hutchison's coyness about whether she will resign her Senate seat and the controversy around the Willingham execution have eaten up much of the oxygen in the campaign, and neither candidate has launched television spots.
As a result, many voters around the state haven't spent much time thinking about the race.
"There's nothing in the numbers that suggests this race is out of reach," said Daron Shaw, a UT government professor who was part of the team conducting the poll.
The UT researchers surveyed 800 registered voters. Of that group, 356 said they plan to vote in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.19 percentage points for the Perry-Hutchison-Medina question.
If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff between the top two finishers will follow.
"Medina could very easily send this thing into a runoff," Shaw said.
Perry's team expressed confidence Tuesday. "We are pleased where we are at this stage," Perry spokesman Mark Miner said.
But there are some encouraging signs for Hutchison.
Among all respondents, 39 percent said they approve of Hutchison's job performance, while 27 percent said they disapprove. Perry's approval rating was 36 percent and his disapproval rating 44 percent. Hutchison also polled better than Perry in hypothetical matchups against Democratic candidates.
Her appeal among Democrats indicates that her hopes for a win may hinge on voters taking part in the Republican primary for the first time.
The poll also showed that no Democratic candidate is gaining momentum. More than half the respondents who said they plan to vote in the Democratic primary — 55 percent — said they don't know whom they support. Humorist Kinky Friedman, who ran as an independent in 2006, garnered the most support at 19 percent, followed by former Ambassador Tom Schieffer, whom 10 percent supported.
The poll was conducted online Oct. 20-27 by a company that compiles a large base of potential respondents through a variety of means and then recruits participants for specific surveys, primarily via e-mail, out of the pool.
Some pollsters and observers are skeptical of online polls and those that base their survey on voters who say they will take part in a primary, rather than sampling those who have a history of doing so.
jembry@statesman.com; 445-3572
